ABOUT ME
Frank,
Germany
I have traded as an individual investor for more than 20 years now. I take a statistical approach in combination with historical market data to profit in the US equity and future markets, focused on intraday and swing trading opportunities (regularly using E-mini futures for intraday trading, and -leveraged- US equity index ETFs for swing trading) .
Please accept my apologies for not being a native speaker, and please take respect to the fact that that blog is (and will probably be for the time being) under construction (there is always room for improvement, especially right after the start, and your suggestions are always more than welcome).
My email: tradingtheodds@fastmail.fm
THE MISSION OF THE BLOG
This blog is all about using the power of statistics in combination with historical market data to profit in the US equity and future markets. It is about trading the markets like professional card counters are playing Blackjack or expert poker players are playing Poker: The key is to have the odds on your side and bet accordingly, knowing what, when, where, why and how much you bet on each trade or wager. If you are a day/swing trader and believe that trading, for all that it is a game of chance, is to the most part a game of skill, this blog may be for you.
Consistently profitable blackjack/poker players and traders pursue their goals as a business, not as a leisurely pursuit therefore taking a completely different approach towards betting/trading from people who play for the action, the excitement and the dream of getting rich quick. Trading is a game of odds NOT certainties, and preserving your equity is vital by taking small losses when you’re wrong and increasing your stake at the right time to maximize profits. Trading is not a game of being right more often than wrong, but all about being profitable.
What may be my value-add to the reader ?
- (almost) each day I’ll try to provide and comment on interesting patterns in the market’s which might provide a tradable edge for (or over the course of the) the next trading day(s), based on a statistical analysis how those patterns played out in the past, and which probabilities (the true chances that the event will occur) and odds (the amounts that -on average- will be payed out on winning bets/trades in order to determine the expectancy and favorable opportunities) might be applied. Regularly I try to determine probabilities and odds for a higher/lower S&P 500 (and/or SPY, Nasdaq 100, QQQQ, Russel 2000 or DJ Ind.) index open, a potential higher high/lower low, close, and the respective odds (e.g. the profit factor as the sum of all potential profits made divided by the sum of all losses having taken the same trade in the past) in comparison to the respective at-any-time probabilites and odds if one would have invested comparatively either on every single session during the choosen time frame or randomly.
- in the MARKET STATISTICS section -updated on a weekly basis- I’ll provide some statistics about seasonal patterns (e.g. gains/losses concerning the day of the week, week of the year and/or year of the month), technical indicators (e.g. how the market recently and historically reacted to overbought/oversold conditions, gap fills, and the markets behavior after x consecutive up/down days (average open/high/low/close), among others, and finally
- with WordPress recently adding the capability to bring Twitter to the blog, I’ll regularly post some intraday updates concerning if -and to what potential extend- the market may provide a tradable edge based on the last session’s analysis and forecast for the the then current session.
Successful trading
Frank
